Weekly Recap for Week Ended October 10, 2025
Weekly Recap of Major Micro / Macro Data Points and Things to Look Forward to in the Week Ahead
Significant News / Developments from Week Ended Oct. 10, 2025
Pieces I’ve put out in the past week:
Fixed Income Trading Platforms September Metrics (here)
Other notable news:
IPOs in Limbo as Shutdown Threatens Billions of Dollars of Deals
Handful of potential IPOs set for later this year could be impacted or delayed by prolonged government shutdown
If shutdown lasts beyond the end of this week, timeline becomes tighter to get IPO completed before Thanksgiving after accounting for a 15 day holding period ahead of marketing the IPO
Nasdaq (NDAQ 0.00%↑) Has Become Market of Choice for Dubious Penny-Stock IPOs
Since the start of 2024 there have been 164 penny-stock IPOs (defined as an IPO price below $5) and 147 of them have been on Nasdaq (the remainder on NYSE American)
Of the 2024 penny-stock IPOs that have one-year returns available as of Sept. 30, average returns have been a 37% decline from IPO price
Influx of penny-stock listings comes despite Nasdaq filing with the SEC to tighten listings standards, particularly for small Chinese based companies
Galaxy (GLXY 0.00%↑) launches GalaxyOne
New retail trading platform designed to compete with the likes of HOOD 0.00%↑ and ETOR 0.00%↑ but geared more toward affluent accredited investors
Offers trading in U.S. stocks and ETFs as well as crypto
Offers 4% APY on cash deposits and 8% yield investment note for accredited investors with a minimum deposit of $25k
Cboe Global Markets (CBOE 0.00%↑) Gets Nod to List Firms in Australia
The Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) approved CBOE’s application to list Australian stocks on Tuesday
Will provide more choice for companies seeking to list in Australia and provides competition for Australia’s main exchange ASX Ltd.
While this could be a slight positive for CBOE and slight negative for ASX it’s likely many issuers will continue to choose to list at ASX in order to be included in ASX’s indices
Rachel Reeves Steps up Efforts to Secure More Company Listings for the UK
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is increasing effort to attract more listings to the UK including granting tax relief on proceeds from listings as well as providing tax relief on costs of an IPO
The hope is that more UK companies will choose to list in the local market as London fell out of the world’s top 20 listings markets for the first 9 months of this year
Crypto Exchange Spot Trading Falls to $1.67T in September
Spot trading down 10% from August to lowest level since June
However, spot bitcoin ETFs experienced a shift from net outflows to net inflows for the month
Bullish Releases September Trading Metrics
Total trading volume declined 19% M/M to $39.6B
Spot trading volume was down 16% M/M to 37.3B
Perpetuals were down 52% M/M to $2.2B
Bullish and Deutsche Bank Partner to Deliver Fiat Integration for Crypto Trading
Deutsche Bank will provide corporate banking services to Bullish including facilitation of fiat deposits and withdrawals for Bullish’s Hong Kong and German businesses
Setup will include real-time reporting and instant payments as well as a virtual accounting solution
Ares Capitalizing on Retail in Alternative Assets
Ares has 185 employees in 10 offices working on product development for retail and already has over $50B in AUM with market share of retail approaching 10%
Some have suggested retail has been funneled weaker deals as retail has grown in the segment with institutions seeing better deal flow but according to Ares, allocations have been based on capital available with many investments flowing to both retail and institutions
Ares CEO, Michael Arougheti believes the interest in alt assets from retail has come from increased concentration in liquid, public securities
Arougheti does not believe 401(k) accounts will bolster AUM much until regulations change as the primary definition of fiduciary duty is cost, not return from the assets, so while alternatives could provide higher returns many plan sponsors may be uncomfortable allocating assets to alternatives due to the higher fee structure
Jamie Dimon Would Welcome Change in Quarterly Earnings
Dimon said he would be supportive of removing the quarterly earnings requirement but noted JPM would likely continue reporting earnings quarterly but on a much more scaled back level
He did suggest that the bigger problem for companies’ longtermism approach was when companies provide guidance and back themselves into a corner to hit an earnings target
He also suggested the endless rules companies have to follow to maintain public company status is the big issue with declining public companies in the U.S. and that the quarterly earnings process is just a small piece of that problem
Retail Rush to Private Assets is Raising Risks
The flood of retail money into private assets is pressure fund managers to deploy capital quickly, raising risks of managers buying lower quality assets
S&P Global Plans to Launch Crypto Ecosystem Index
Index will include 35 companies involved in digital asset operations, infrastructure providers, blockchain applications and financial services and 15 cryptocurrencies
S&P is also partnering with Dinari, a provider of tokenized U.S. public securities, to create a token tracking the new benchmark
Gold Backed Crypto Tokens Top $3B
Tokenized gold trading topped $640M on Monday and the total market cap of tokenized gold surpassed $3B as underlying gold crossed $4k per ounce for the first time ever
Crypto Race to Tokenize Stocks Raises Investor Protection Flags
Financial regulators and traditional financial firms are warning that tokenized equities pose risks to investors and threaten financial stability
Though the new offerings are marketed like traditional stocks they offer far fewer investor rights, protections, and disclosures as traditional equities and typically more closely resemble a derivative contract
The tokenization trend has exploded in popularity recently with HOOD 0.00%↑, COIN 0.00%↑, Kraken, GEMI 0.00%↑ and others launching or exploring these products and NDAQ 0.00%↑ has petitioned the SEC to allow tokenized securities to trade on its exchange
Citadel, SIFMA and the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) have all raised concerns to regulators about tokenized securities, though the WFE has noted that it is supportive of NDAQ’s proposal because NDAQ’s proposal would treat the tokens on its exchange just as traditional securities
Clearly tokenization is going to become more prevalent in the markets and could provide significant benefits to how securities trade and clear, but it must be implemented correctly
Carlyle Release Proprietary U.S. Economic Indicators
Using data from its portfolio of 277 companies, 694 real estate investments and 730k employees worldwide, Carlyle released proprietary U.S. economic data
The data shows the U.S. economy adding 17k jobs in September, U.S. GDP running at growth 2.7%, Energy inflation running down 3.3%, Services inflation less shelter up 3.3% and Durables inflation up 2.3%
AI Debt Hits $1.2T, Becoming Largest Investment-Grade Market Segment
AI companies now make up 14% of the U.S. high grade market, up from 11% in 2020 and surpassing U.S. Banks, the largest sector in the J.P. Morgan US Liquid Index (JULI) at 11.7%
Additionally, AI company debt trades at 74 bps, 10 bps tighter than the JULI
Crypto Exchange Gemini (GEMI 0.00%↑) Launches Australian Arm
Gemini already has institutional customers from Australia that have been serviced through the company’s global arm
Crypto adoption rate in Australia rose to 31% earlier this year from 28% last year
Influx of Retirement Funds Could Push Private Markets to Daily Pricing
Demand for disclosure is likely to intensify as 401(k) allocations move more into alternative assets according to KKR’s head of client services, Eric Mogelof
Jane Street Looks to Expand Into Physical Markets in Trading Push
The company is actively hiring in its physical gas business to expand its capabilities in the natural gas markets
SEC Eases IPO Path During Government Shutdown
Typically companies can not go public during a government shutdown because staff is unable to review registration statements
However companies can allow their registration statements to become automatically effective which involves setting the IPO price 20 days before the listing instead of pricing it the night before
In an announcement on the SEC website, the SEC said it would not punish companies that omit pricing details from prospectuses filed during the shutdown and go public during or after the shutdown ends
Block Street Raises $11.5M
Funding comes from Hack VC, DWF Labs, and executives from Jane Street and Point72
Block Street plans to use the funding to build infrastructure for on chain trading of tokenized stocks
Kalshi Announces $300M in Series D Funding at $5B Valuation
Fundraising led by A16Z and Sequoia with participation from Paradigm, Coinbase Ventures, General Catalyst, Spark and CapitalG
Also announced it is now available in over140 countries
Kraken Expands CME 0.00%↑ Derivative Access to Oil, Gold and FX
The company has been preparing this expansion after acquiring NinjaTrader earlier this year
Move comes as Kraken is exploring an IPO with a potential valuation of $20B
Company Specific Updates for Week Ended Oct. 10, 2025
Exchanges
CME Group Inc. (CME)
Farmers Say Current Conditions on U.S. Farms Weakening
Sentiment essentially unchanged, rising 1 point to 126
Index of current conditions fell 7 points to 122
CME Group Metals Complex Reaches All-Time Daily Volume Record
On October 9, CME metals traded 2.1M contracts, 24% higher than the prior daily record set in April 2024
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE)
Falling Rates Lead to Best Homebuying Affordability in 2.5 Years
With 30-year mortgage rates falling to 6.26% in September average monthly principal and interest fell to $2,148 or 30% of median household income
Announces strategic $2B investment in Polymarket
Values Polymarket at $8B pre-investment
ICE will become a global distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data
ICE and Polymarket have also agreed to partner on future tokenization efforts
Investment consideration in cash and not expected to have material impact on ICE’s 2025 financial results or capital return plans
Loomis Sayles Selects ICE Climate to Advance Climate Risk Integration Across Portfolios
ICE’s data will support Loomis Sayles approach to identifying financially material climate risk across municipal bonds, global corporates, securitized and sovereign debt
ICE Climate’s data includes metrics for flood, wildfire, hurricane, extreme heat and cold exposure and Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions transition risk indicators
Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX)
Reports Official September Trading Volume
Volume stats largely known ahead of
Market share up M/M in Options (new record) & Equities
Futures ADV -47% M/M, -35% Y/Y
More detail in my exchange September volume recap note from Oct. 1 available here
MIAX September Volumes & Market Share
Source: company documents
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
Reports official trading volume for September
Volumes across the board were up meaningfully both M/M and Y/Y
More detail in my exchange September volume recap note from Oct. 1 available here
NDAQ September Volumes
Source: company documents
Fixed Income Trading Platforms
MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX)
Reports September Volume Metrics and 3Q Fee Per Million Data
Total volume up 16% M/M to $42.7B (-6% Y/Y)
Credit Fee Per Million +1% Q/Q
Rates Fee Per Million +3% Q/Q
More detail in my fixed income platforms recap note here
MKTX Monthly Metrics
Source: company documents
Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW)
Announces 3Q25 Earnings Release Date
Thursday, October 30
Press Release scheduled for 7:00am ET
Conference call at 9:30am ET
Expands Algorithmic Execution Capabilities for U.S. Treasuries
The capabilities enable traders to manage and execute orders over a set time horizon while maintaining dealer relationships and benefit from the risk protections of executing with a bank counterparty
Tradeweb offers access to both dealer and proprietary algos
Reports September Volume Metrics and 3Q Fee Per Million Data
Total volume up 18% M/M to $2.9T (+10% Y/Y)
Fee Per Million down 6% Q/Q
Fixed fees for rates, credit, equities and money markets +2% Q/Q
More detail in my fixed income platforms recap note here
TW Monthly Metrics
Source: company documents
Online Brokers
eToro Group Ltd. (ETOR)
Announces 3Q25 Earnings Release Date
Monday, November 10
Press release pre-market
Conference call 8:30am ET
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)
Expands Tax Planning Suite with New Professional Tools
New Tax Planner tool uses inputs such as income from other sources, deductions and withholdings to create a personal tax profile for users
Helps identify tax loss opportunities across the portfolio and offers tax smart trading
The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)
STAX Score Keeps Rising in September
STAX rises to 46.12 from 43.69 in August
Reading ranks “moderate low” compared to historical average
Retail traders branched out from Mag-7 stocks into higher-volatility, AI-adjacent names
Schwab clients were net buyers of equities in September
Schwab Stock Plan Services Launches Schwab Private Issuer Equity Services
New offering brings SCHW’s public company stock plan experience to private company administrators
Offering to be powered by Qapita an equity management platform for private companies
Qapita primarily serves companies across Southeast Asia with 70% of the 2,700 companies using it based in India. This partnership will greatly expand its U.S. presence
As part of the partnership with Qapita, SCHW took part in Qapita’s $26.5M series B funding round
Provides equity management tools, offers guidance to employees, and ensures a seamless transition for administrators and employees when a company goes public without administrators having to transition to a new provider
Company Specific Updates Anticipated for the Upcoming Week (Ended Oct. 17, 2025)
Exchanges
None to Note
Fixed Income Trading Platforms
None to Note
Online Brokers
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)
3Q25 earnings release
Thursday, October 16 post-close
Conference call 4:30pm ET
The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)
3Q25 earnings release
Thursday, October 16 pre-market
Conference call 8:30am ET
Next Four Weeks Calendar
Source: Company press releases and my estimates around timing
Major Macro Updates for Week Ended Oct. 10, 2025
U.S. Trade Deficit (Aug.) – DELAYED consensus ($60.7B) and prior ($78.3B)
Consumer Credit (Aug.) – $363M vs. consensus $14.0B and prior $18.1B
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended Oct. 4) – DELAYED consensus N/A and prior DELAYED
Wholesale Inventories (Aug.) – DELAYED prior 0.1%
Preliminary Consumer Sentiment (Oct.) – 55.0 vs. consensus 53.5 prior 55.1
Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Sep.) – DELAYED prior ($170.7B)
Major Macro Updates Scheduled for the Upcoming Week (Ended Oct. 17, 2025)
Monday, Oct. 13
None to Note
Tuesday, Oct. 14
NFIB Optimism Index (Sep.) – prior 100.8
Wednesday, Oct. 15
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct.) – consensus (0.5) and prior (8.7)
Thursday, Oct. 16
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended Oct. 11) –consensus N/A and prior DELAYED
U.S. Retail Sales (Sep.) – consensus 0.4% and prior 0.6%
Retail Sales Minus Autos (Sep.) – consensus 0.4% and prior 0.7%
Producer Price Index (Sep.) – consensus 0.3% and prior (0.1%)
Core PPI (Sep.) – prior 0.3%
PPI Y/Y (Sep.) – prior 2.6%
Core PPI Y/Y (Sep.) – prior 2.8%
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Oct.) – consensus 10 and prior 23.2
Business Inventories (Aug.) – consensus 0.2% and prior 0.2%
Homebuilder Confidence Index (Oct.) – prior 32
Friday, Oct. 17
Housing Starts (Sep.) – consensus 1.31M and prior 1.31M
Building Permits (Sep.) – consensus 1.35M and prior 1.31M
Import Price Index (Sep.) – consensus 0.1% and prior 0.3%
Import Price Index Minus Fuel (Sep.) – prior 0.4%
Industrial Production (Sep.) – consensus 0.1% and prior 0.1%
Capacity Utilization (Sep.) – consensus 77.3% and prior 77.4%
Exchange Volume Update
Exchange Volumes Over Past Week and W/W Trends
For the week ended October 10, 2025, volumes were higher and volatility was higher W/W primarily driven by an uptick on Friday after President Trump commented that he was considering increasing tariffs on China to 100%.
The average VIX for the week was up 7% from the prior week, average realized volatility was up 8% W/W, average volatility of volatility (as measured by the VVIX) was up 6% W/W and the average MOVE index (U.S. Treasuries volatility) was up 3% W/W.
Futures average daily volumes (ADV) were higher as CBOE futures volumes were up 86% W/W, CME futures volumes were up 1% W/W, and ICE futures volumes were up 5% W/W.
Total U.S. Equities ADV was up 13% W/W, as TRF volumes rose 12% W/W and on-exchange volumes were up 14% W/W. Industry equity options volumes were up 13% W/W while index options volumes rose 8% W/W.
In terms of market share trends for the past week, CBOE and NDAQ picked up share in U.S. equities on-exchange trading while MIAX, ICE and other exchanges gave up some share on the week. Within U.S. equity options, ICE and MIAX picked up share while NDAQ, CBOE, and other exchanges ceded share in the week.
For further detail on weekly volume trends by exchange and by product line please see the charts below.
CME Futures Volumes (M)
Source: Company Daily Volume Releases
ICE Futures (M), U.S. Equities (B) and U.S. Equity Options (M) Volumes
Source: Company Daily Volume Releases, Cboe Global Markets and OCC
CBOE Options (M), Futures (K), U.S. Equity (B), and FX Volumes ($B)
Source: Company Daily Volume Releases and OCC
NDAQ U.S. Equity (B) and Option (M) Volumes
Source: Cboe Global Markets and OCC
MIAX U.S. Equity (B) and Option (M) Volumes
Source: Cboe Global Markets and OCC
U.S. Total Industry Equity Volumes (B)
Source: Cboe Global Markets
U.S. Equities Market Share Trends (On-Exchange Traded Volume Only)
Source: Cboe Global Markets
U.S. Total Industry Equity Option and Index Option Volumes (M)
Source: OCC
U.S. Options Market Share Trends
Source: OCC
Volatility Metrics
Source: Yahoo Finance
Exchange Volumes MTD / QTD / YTD Trends
For the month to date, exchange volumes are trending mixed M/M and Y/Y. This comes as volatility is mixed M/M and lower on a Y/Y basis.
The average VIX in October is down 14% Y/Y while realized volatility is down 29% Y/Y and volatility of volatility is down 12% Y/Y. Treasuries volatility is also lower Y/Y as the average MOVE index in October is down 39% Y/Y.
Futures volumes are mixed Y/Y as ICE futures ADV is down 11% vs. October 2024 ADV. Meanwhile, CME ADV is down 4% Y/Y while CBOE futures ADV is up 86% Y/Y.
In terms of equities and options volumes, total U.S. equities ADV is up 82% MTD while option volumes are up 60% for equity options and up 39% for index options.
In terms of market share trends for the month-to-date, CBOE and Other exchanges have picked up share in U.S. equities on-exchange trading relative to last month’s levels while NDAQ, MIAX, and ICE have given up some share. Within U.S. equity options, MIAX and ICE have picked up share vs. last month while CBOE, NDAQ and Other exchanges have ceded share.
For further details on MTD, QTD and YTD ADV please see the charts below.
CME Futures Volumes (M)
Source: Company Daily Volume Releases
ICE Futures (M), U.S. Equities (B) and U.S. Equity Options (M) Volumes
Source: Company Daily Volume Releases, Cboe Global Markets and OCC
CBOE Options (M), Futures (K), U.S. Equity (B), and FX Volumes ($B)
Source: Company Daily Volume Releases and OCC
NDAQ U.S. Equity (B) and Option (M) Volumes
Source: Cboe Global Markets and OCC
MIAX U.S. Equity (B) and Option (M) Volumes
Source: Cboe Global Markets and OCC
U.S. Total Industry Equity Volumes (B)
Source: Cboe Global Markets
U.S. Equities Market Share Trends (On-Exchange Traded Volume Only)
Source: Cboe Global Markets
U.S. Total Industry Equity Option and Index Option Volumes (M)
Source: OCC
U.S. Options Market Share Trends
Source: OCC
Volatility Metrics
Source: Yahoo Finance
Major Indices, Interest Rates and Company Share Price Trends
The market closed out the week down 2% W/W driven by a steep selloff on Friday after President Trump threatened additional tariffs on China Friday morning. Yields were lower on the week and the curve flattened slightly and the VIX was up 30% on the week.
In terms of the companies I follow, BULL showed the weakest performance in the group, falling 20% on no meaningful news. The remainder of the eBrokers were all lower as well with HOOD falling 7%,ETOR declining 6% while IBKR was down2% and SCHW was down 2% on the week. In fixed income land, MKTX rose4% while TW fell 3%. Within the exchanges, MIAX rose 3% after reporting monthly metrics for September. Meanwhile, NDAQ was up 1%, CME rose3%, CBOE rose 2% and ICE was down 3% on the week.
Source: Yahoo Finance, FRED, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Comp Sheet
Source: Yahoo Finance
Guidance Tracker
Exchanges
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE)
Source: Company documents
Note: CBOE provided additional guidance points / commentary on its 2Q25 earnings call, but key annual highlights are included above for the sake of simplicity
CME Group Inc. (CME)
Source: Company documents
Note: CME provided additional guidance points / commentary on its 2Q25 earnings call, but key annual highlights are included above for the sake of simplicity
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE)
Source: Company documents
Note: ICE provided additional guidance points / commentary on its 2Q25 earnings call, but key annual highlights are included above for the sake of simplicity
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ)
Source: Company documents
Note: NDAQ provided additional guidance points / commentary on its 2Q25 earnings call, but key annual highlights are included above for the sake of simplicity
Fixed Income Trading Platforms
MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX)
Source: Company documents
Note: MKTX provided additional guidance points / commentary on its 2Q25 earnings call, but key annual highlights are included above for the sake of simplicity
Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW)
Source: Company documents
Note: TW provided additional guidance points / commentary on its 2Q25 earnings call, but key annual highlights are included above for the sake of simplicity
Online Brokers
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)
Source: Company documents
Note: HOOD provided additional guidance points / commentary on its 2Q25 earnings call, but key annual highlights are included above for the sake of simplicity
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)
Source: Company documents
Note: IBKR provided additional guidance points / commentary on its 2Q25 earnings call, but key annual highlights are included above for the sake of simplicity
The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)
The Ares retail strategy commentary is particularly interesting. 185 employees focused on retail product development shows serious commitment to the channel. The point about 401(k) regulations being cost-focused rather than return-focused is spot on - that regulatory shift would be transformtive for alt AUM growth. Their early mover advantage in retail alts distribution could be meaningful as more wealth managers get comfortable with the asset class.