Weekly Recap for Week Ended January 24, 2025

Weekly Recap of Major Micro / Macro Data Points and Things to Look Forward to in the Week Ahead

Collin Cook

Jan 27, 2025

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Company Specific Updates for Week Ended Jan. 24, 2025

SCHW

Reported strong EPS Beat, posting 4Q24 EPS of $1.01 vs. consensus $0.91
Beat driven by topline with revenue $130M above consensus
NIM expanded significantly (+25bps Q/Q to 2.33%) driven by supplemental funding pay down
Achieved capital ratio targets, setting up potential capital return in 2025
Guidance for 2025 is strong, implying EPS of $4.10 - $4.20 for the year

IBKR

Reported an EPS beat of $2.03 vs. consensus of $1.86
Beat driven by topline with revenue $20M above consensus

Company Specific Updates Anticipated for the Upcoming Week (Ended Jan. 31, 2025)

NDAQ – 4Q24 EPS Expected Wednesday, Jan. 29 - Consensus expects EPS $0.75 on Revenue of $1.23B

Major Macro Updates for Week Ended Jan. 24, 2025

Initial Jobless Claims for Week Ended 1/18/25 – 223k vs. consensus 221k & prior week 217k

U.S. Services PMI for January – 52.8 vs. forecast 56.5 and prior month 56.8

U.S. Manufacturing PMI for January – 50.1 vs. forecast 49.7 and prior month 49.4

Existing Home Sales for December – 4.24M vs. forecast 4.2M and prior month 4.15M

Consumer Sentiment – 71.1 vs. forecast 73.2 and prior month 74.0

Major Macro Updates Scheduled for the Upcoming Week (Ended Jan. 31, 2025)

Monday, Jan. 27

New Home Sales (Dec.) – forecast 671k, prior month 664k

Tuesday, Jan. 28

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Nov.) – prior month 4.2%
Consumer confidence (Jan.) – forecast 106.3, prior month 104.7

Wednesday, Jan. 29

FOMC Rate Decision (2:00pm ET) & Press Conference (Fed widely expected to keep rates on hold)

Thursday, Jan. 30

Initial jobless claims (week ended Jan. 25) – forecast 225k, prior 223k
Pending home sales (Dec.) – forecast 1.0%, prior month 2.2%

Friday, Jan. 31

PCE (Dec.) – forecast 2.6%, prior month 2.4%
Core PCE (Dec.) – forecast 2.8%, prior month 2.8%

Exchange Volumes Over Past Week and W/W Trends

For the week ended January 24, 2025, volumes generally declined week over week as volatility came down across the board. Note that Monday, January 20 was a holiday across most markets / asset classes so weekly ADV calcs for the week ended January 24, 2025 are (in most cases) based on a four day week.

The average VIX for the week was down 13% from the prior week, average realized volatility was down 16% W/W, average volatility of volatility (as measured by the VVIX) was down 4% W/W and the average MOVE index (U.S. Treasuries volatility) was down 7% W/W.

Futures average daily volumes (ADV) declined as well (though performance was mixed across exchanges and products) as CBOE futures ADV was down 22% W/W, CME futures ADV was down 12% W/W (driven by a 17% W/W decline in Interest Rate futures) and ICE futures ADV was down 4% W/W.

Total U.S. Equities ADV was down 2% W/W, mainly driven by on-exchange trading as TRF volumes were up 1% W/W. Industry equity and index options ADV also declined, down 8% and 5% W/W, respectively.

For further detail on weekly volume trends by exchange and by product line please see the charts below.

CME Futures Volumes (M)

Source: Company Daily Volume Releases

ICE Futures (M), U.S. Equities (B) and U.S. Equity Options (M) Volumes

Source: Company Daily Volume Releases, Cboe Global Markets and OCC

CBOE Options (M), Futures (K), U.S. Equity (B), and FX Volumes ($B)

Source: Company Daily Volume Releases and OCC

NDAQ U.S. Equity (B) and Option (M) Volumes

Source: Cboe Global Markets and OCC

U.S. Total Industry Equity Volumes (B)

Source: Cboe Global Markets

U.S. Total Industry Equity Option and Index Option Volumes (M)

Source: OCC

Volatility Metrics

Source: Yahoo Finance

Exchange Volumes MTD / QTD / YTD Trends

Exchange volumes have started the year on a high note with most products showing Y/Y monthly ADV growth in January-to-date. This comes as volatility is generally higher on a Y/Y basis MTD.

The average VIX in January-to-date is up 25% Y/Y while realized volatility is up 54% Y/Y and volatility of volatility is up 23% Y/Y. Treasuries volatility is lower Y/Y as the average MOVE index in January -to-date is down 13% Y/Y.

Futures volumes are somewhat mixed as ICE futures MTD ADV is up 22% vs. January 2024 ADV. Meanwhile, CME ADV is up 1% Y/Y while CBOE futures ADV is down 6% Y/Y.

In terms of equities and options volumes, total U.S. equities ADV is up 35% MTD while option volumes are up 24% for equity options and 11% for index options.

For further detail on MTD / QTD / YTD ADV please see the charts below.